The Future of Spot Bitcoin ETFs: Insights from Market Experts

Bombolo | News and Media

Former BlackRock managing director, Steven Schoenfield, who now serves as the CEO of MarketVector Indexes, has shared his insights on the potential approval of a Spot Bitcoin ETF by the U.S. SEC. This prediction was made during a panel discussion on ETFs at CCData's Digital Asset Summit in London, where he was joined by another ex-BlackRock director, Martin Bednall, now CEO of Jacobi Asset Management.

Also Read: A Glimpse into the Future of Bitcoin: Why the BlackRock Spot ETF Matters

Changing Timelines: Sooner SEC Approval?

Schoenfield's estimate suggests that the U.S. SEC could approve a Spot Bitcoin ETF within the next three to six months, a shorter timeline than previously anticipated. This prediction follows Bednall's comment that the SEC may approve all ETF applications simultaneously to prevent any first-mover advantages. Initially, Schoenfield had estimated a longer approval period of nine to twelve months.

A Shift in SEC's Approach

Notably, the SEC has deviated from its previous tactics by delaying verdicts on several pending ETF applications. Instead of outright rejection, they've asked for comments, signaling a positive change in dialogue. Additionally, the recent Grayscale lawsuit, which the SEC lost, could mean that the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust may be converted into an ETF.

BlackRock's Strong Position

BlackRock, a financial powerhouse managing $9.42 trillion in assets, is well-positioned to secure approval for a Spot Bitcoin ETF through its pending application. Their remarkable track record with a success rate of 575-1 in getting ETFs approved by the SEC underscores their influence.

Also Read: Breaking News: Satoshi Nakamoto Resurfaces After 5 Years! What Does It Mean for Bitcoin?

A Shifting Stance on Cryptocurrencies

BlackRock's transformation in its stance on cryptocurrencies is noteworthy. CEO Larry Fink, who once criticized Bitcoin, now acknowledges its potential as a digital alternative to gold.

Competition Looms

During the panel discussion, Martin Bednall expressed confidence in BlackRock's ability to leverage its brand strength and resources for a potential first-mover advantage. However, Schoenfield emphasized that while BlackRock may aim to dominate the market, several other firms are deeply committed to tradable digital assets, some with closer ties to the crypto ecosystem. Competition in this space is expected.

The Potential Influx of Capital

Schoenfield's company has conducted analyses suggesting that approval of Spot ETFs could lead to an inflow of $150 to $200 billion into Bitcoin investment products over three years. This influx of capital has the potential to significantly increase the current assets under management (AUM) in Bitcoin products.

Also Read: The Ultimate Guide to BlackRock's Bitcoin ETF: Working Mechanism, Benefits, and Drawbacks


Q1: When does Steven Schoenfield predict the U.S. SEC will approve a Spot Bitcoin ETF?

A1: Schoenfield predicts SEC approval within the next three to six months.

Q2: What recent changes in the SEC's approach to ETFs have been noted?

A2: The SEC has shifted to requesting comments on pending ETF applications instead of outright rejection, signaling a positive change in dialogue.

Q3: What is BlackRock's track record in getting ETFs approved by the SEC?

A3: BlackRock has a remarkable success rate of 575-1 in getting ETFs approved by the SEC.

Q4: How much capital influx does Schoenfield's analysis suggest could occur with Spot ETF approval?

A4: The analysis suggests an inflow of $150 to $200 billion into Bitcoin investment products over three years.

Q5: What is the competitive landscape for Spot Bitcoin ETFs?

A5: While BlackRock may strive to dominate, other firms committed to tradable digital assets pose significant competition in this space.