U.S. Spot Bitcoin ETF Approval Chances Skyrocket to 65% Amidst Blackrock's Influence

Bombolo | News and Media

In a recent development, renowned ETF analysts James Seyffart and Eric Balchunas at Bloomberg have raised their estimation of a spot bitcoin ETF debut in the U.S. to a significant 65%. This sharp increase from their previous estimate of 50% just a couple of weeks ago and 1% a few months back comes as multiple applications await review by the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).

The catalyst behind this surge in expectations appears to be the growing pressure from industry giant Blackrock, alongside potential influence from Democrats, which could prompt the SEC to take action. In June, Blackrock, the world's largest asset manager, filed its application for a spot bitcoin ETF, followed by other contenders lining up quickly.

Also Read: The Rise of Bitcoin and Ethereum Futures Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs)

Various recent events and new information have contributed to the analysts' optimistic outlook. These include SEC Chairman Gary Gensler downplaying his role at the SEC, the commission's apparent acceptance of Coinbase's Bitcoin exchange, Grayscale's efforts to minimize other filings, and the SEC's loss in the Grayscale case in front of the same judges. The culmination of these factors, combined with pressure from influential players like Blackrock and political considerations, could make denying the ETFs politically challenging for Gensler.

Also Read: Bitcoin's Journey to $180,000 Before April 2024 with the BlackRock ETF

Speculating on the timing of the Grayscale case dates, Seyffart's team envisions the most straightforward path to be simultaneous approval for all eight applicants plus Grayscale, following a court overturning of the SEC's denial. The potential triumph by Grayscale over the SEC in federal court could pave the way for a wave of SEC approvals, likely in the fourth quarter. However, the final outcome ultimately depends on Gensler's willingness to contest the matter.

Overall, the evolving landscape presents an encouraging outlook for the potential launch of a spot bitcoin ETF in the U.S., providing investors with a new dimension to explore in the crypto market.

Also Read: The Ultimate Guide to BlackRock's Bitcoin ETF: Working Mechanism, Benefits, and Drawbacks