SEC's Positive Outlook: Over 50% Chance for Spot Bitcoin ETF Approval

Bombolo | News and Media

In a recent conversation with Decrypt, Marathon Digital CEO Fred Thiel expressed optimism about the possibility of the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) granting approval for a Bitcoin Exchange-Traded Fund (ETF). According to Thiel, the chances of this approval have surpassed the 50/50 mark, indicating a growing confidence within the industry. Furthermore, Thiel hinted that the approval of an Ethereum Futures ETF could further enhance the likelihood of a Bitcoin ETF receiving the regulatory green light.

Also Read: Boost in European Crypto ETP Flows Following BlackRock's Bitcoin Fund Application

The Spotlight on Bitcoin ETF Approval

The pursuit of a Bitcoin Spot ETF has been a pivotal topic of discussion in the realm of digital assets. A variety of players, ranging from well-established digital asset firms like Valkyrie to traditional finance giants like BlackRock, have all thrown their hats into the ring, seeking approval from the SEC. As a result, the outlook for the approval of such offerings has been increasingly positive.

Fred Thiel's Insights: SEC's Changing Attitude

Marathon Digital's CEO, Fred Thiel, brought his valuable insights to the ongoing conversation. With his extensive experience in the industry, Thiel suggested that the chances of securing SEC approval for a Bitcoin ETF have now shifted beyond a 50/50 probability. This sentiment is a testament to the evolving attitude of regulatory bodies towards digital assets.

Thiel also highlighted the significance of players like BlackRock entering the approval process. He emphasized, "They have a pretty high degree of certainty that they’ll get it through." Thiel's observation that the approval of one major player could pave the way for others indicates the changing landscape of cryptocurrency-related regulations.

The Landscape of Approvals

Thiel's perspective on the approval process is nuanced. He acknowledges the possibility of multiple approvals but doesn't anticipate the SEC favoring just one participant. "I think what is certain is that if one gets approved, a number of them will get approved," Thiel remarked. He elaborated that while not all contenders might receive approval, a significant portion could be successful in securing the regulatory nod.

Ethereum Futures ETF: A Catalyst for Bitcoin ETF Approval?

Interestingly, Thiel introduced an intriguing dynamic into the conversation. He believes that the potential approval of an Ethereum Futures ETF could positively influence the fate of the Bitcoin ETF. Expressing a bullish outlook, Thiel suggested that the presence of an Ethereum-related offering could bolster the chances of the SEC approving a Bitcoin ETF.

Also Read: Waiting on SEC Approval: BlackRock Bitcoin ETF Awaits Greenlight Amid Anticipated Delays

Anticipating the Future: Lobbying and Odds

As the industry progresses towards more comprehensive cryptocurrency regulations, Thiel remains cautiously optimistic. He considers the efforts of lobbying entities as impactful in shaping the odds of approval. While maintaining that there's more than a 50% chance of success for these lobbying groups, Thiel leaves room for the uncertain nature of regulatory processes.

In conclusion, the prospect of a Bitcoin ETF gaining approval from the SEC has taken a positive turn, according to Marathon Digital's CEO Fred Thiel. His insights reflect the changing perception of digital assets within regulatory circles, with a higher likelihood of approval and the potential influence of related offerings like an Ethereum Futures ETF. While the future remains uncertain, the industry's determination and strategic moves continue to shape the trajectory of cryptocurrency-based investment opportunities.

Also Read: The Ultimate Guide to BlackRock's Bitcoin ETF: Working Mechanism, Benefits, and Drawbacks


  1. What is a Bitcoin Spot ETF?

    A Bitcoin Spot ETF is an Exchange-Traded Fund that allows investors to gain exposure to the value of Bitcoin without needing to directly hold the cryptocurrency itself. It tracks the current market price of Bitcoin.

  2. Why is the approval of a Bitcoin ETF significant?

    Approval of a Bitcoin ETF would provide traditional investors with an accessible and regulated way to invest in Bitcoin, potentially increasing its mainstream adoption.

  3. How does the Ethereum Futures ETF relate to a Bitcoin ETF?

    The potential approval of an Ethereum Futures ETF could create a favorable environment for a Bitcoin ETF approval, as it indicates a growing acceptance of cryptocurrency-related investment products.

  4. Are all lobbying efforts likely to be successful?

    While lobbying efforts increase the odds of approval, regulatory decisions are subject to various factors. Not all contenders might secure approval despite these efforts.

  5. How might the cryptocurrency industry change with ETF approvals?

    ETF approvals could bridge the gap between traditional finance and cryptocurrencies, potentially attracting more institutional and retail investors to the digital asset space.